| Autor: |
Michael Tong, Berhanu Wondmagegn, Jianjun Xiang, Susan Williams, Alana Hansen, Keith Dear, Dino Pisaniello, Blesson Varghese, Jianguo Xiao, Le Jian, Ben Scalley, Monika Nitschke, John Nairn, Hilary Bambrick, Jonathan Karnon, Peng Bi |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| DOI: |
10.21203/rs.3.rs-1140619/v1 |
| Popis: |
Background: The association between temperatures and respiratory diseases has been extensively reported. However, the associated healthcare costs and attributable fractions due to temperature have scarcely been explored. The aims of this study were to estimate respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, to quantify the attributable fraction from cold and hot temperatures, and to estimate the future hospitalization costs in two Australian cities. Methods: The associations between daily hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases and temperatures in Sydney and Perth over the study period of 2010-2016 were analyzed using distributed lag non-linear models. Future hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases were estimated based on three predicted climate change scenarios - RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results: The estimated respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures increased from 493.2 million Australian dollars (AUD) in 2010s to more than 700 million AUD in 2050s in Sydney, and from 98.0 million AUD to about 150 million AUD during the same period in Perth, in large part due to population growth. In the context of climate change, the current cold attributable fraction in Sydney (23.7%) and Perth (11.2%) is estimated to decline by the middle of this century to (18.1-20.1%) and (5.1-6.6%) respectively, while the heat-attributable fraction for respiratory disease is expected to gradually increase from 2.6% up to 5.5% in Perth. Conclusions: This study found both cold and hot temperatures increased the overall hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases in two major Australian cities, although the attributable fractions varied. The largest contributor was cold temperatures. While respiratory disease hospitalization costs will increase in the future, climate change will result in a decrease in the cold attributable fraction and an increase in the heat attributable fraction, depending on the location. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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