| Autor: |
José Vicente Romero-Chamorro, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Marcela De Castro, Edgar Caicedo-García, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, Hernando Vargas-Herrera, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Celina Gaitán-Maldonado, Nicolás Moreno, Alexander Guarín-López, Franz Alonso Hamann-Salcedo, Macroeconomic Programming Section, Karen Pulido, Carlos Daniel Rojas, Julián Mauricio Pérez-Amaya, Sara Naranjo, Consultant, Sergio Restrepo-Ángel, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Andrea Salazar-Diaz, Santiago Forero, Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta, Advisors, Luis Hernán Calderón, Camilo González, Inflation Section |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Popis: |
Recent data suggest that the technical staff’s appraisals of the condition and development of economic activity, inflation and the labor market have been in line with current trends, marked by a decline in demand and the persistence of ample excess productive capacity. A significant projected fall in output materialized in the second quarter, contributing to a decline in inflation below the 3% target and reflected in a significant deterioration of the labor market. A slow recovery in output and employment is expected to continue for the remainder of 2020 and into next year, alongside growing inflation that should remain below the target. The Colombian economy is likely to undergo a significant recession in 2020 (GDP contraction of 7.6%), though this may be less severe than projected in the previous report (-8.5%). Output is expected to have begun a slow recovery in the second half of this year, though it is not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 amid significant global uncertainty. The output decline in the first half of 2020 was less severe than anticipated, thanks to an upward revision in first-quarter GDP and a smaller contraction in the second quarter (-15.5%) than had been projected (-16.5%). Available economic indicators suggest an annual decline in GDP in the third quarter of around 9%. No significant acceleration of COVID-19 cases that would imply a tightening of social distancing measures is presumed for the remainder of this year or in 2021. In that context, a gradual opening of the economy would be expected to continue, with supply in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic recovering slowly as restrictions on economic activity continue to be relaxed. On the spending side, an improvement in consumer confidence, suppressed demand for goods and services, low interest rates, and higher expected levels of foreign demand should contribute to a recovery in output. A low base of comparison would also help explain the expected increase in GDP in 2021. Based on the conditions laid out above, economic growth in 2020 is expected to be between -9% and -6.5%, with a central value of -7.6%. Growth in 2021 is projected to be between 3% and 7%, with a central value of 4.6% (Graph 1.1). Upward revisions compared to the July report take into account a lower-than-expected fall in first-semester growth and a somewhat faster recovery in the third quarter in some sectors. The forecast intervals for 2020 and 2021 growth tightened somewhat but continue to reflect a high degree of uncertainty over theevolution of the pandemic, the easures required to deal with it, and their effects on global and domestic economic activity. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
