The accuracy of the Conference Board's buying plans index: A comparison of judgmental vs. extrapolation forecasting methods

Autor:	Steven P. Schnaars, Myung-Soo Lee, B. Elango
Rok vydání:	1997
Předmět:	Actuarial science Index (economics) Simple (abstract algebra) Extrapolation Economics Durable good Business and International Management
Zdroj:	International Journal of Forecasting. 13:127-135
ISSN:	0169-2070
Popis:	This paper compares the Conference Board's buying intentions for consumer durable goods with forecasts constructed using simple time-series extrapolation over 177 months. The results show that simple time-series extrapolations provide more accurate forecasts than the judgmental approach. Very little support is found for using buying intentions as a forecasting tool for predicting the sales of durable goods.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::be9cd3456052869a9702e31da6e65c65 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00711-x Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full Text from ScienceDirect