| Autor: |
Kevin Louis Stamber, Rhonda K. Reinert, William Fogelman, Geoffrey Taylor Klise, Mark Bruce Elrick Boslough, Laura Cutler, Ray Finely, George A. Backus, Timothy G. Trucano, Daniel S. Horschel, Mark A. Taylor, James Hassler Strickland, Stephen H. Conrad, Thomas Stephen Lowry, Jesse Dillon Roach, Anna Neila Weddington, John Siirola, Aldo A. Zagonel, Marissa Devan Reno, Lillian Annabelle Snyder, John Lovorn Mitchiner, Verne W. Loose, Mark Andrew Ehlen, Brian M. Adams, Drake E. Warren, Vincent C. Tidwell, Elizabeth H. Richards, Andjelka Kelic, William Anthony Stubblefield, Arnold B. Baker, David B. Robinson, Leonard A. Malczynski, Vanessa N. Vargas |
| Rok vydání: |
2010 |
| Předmět: |
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| DOI: |
10.2172/984163 |
| Popis: |
Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance.more » We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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