Age Preference in Sexual Choice and the Basic Reproduction Number of HIV/AIDS
| Autor: | Helmut Knolle |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
medicine.medical_specialty Incidence (epidemiology) General Medicine medicine.disease Preference Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) Epidemiology medicine Viral disease Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Risk factor Epidemic model Psychology Basic reproduction number Demography |
| Zdroj: | Biometrical Journal. 32:243-256 |
| ISSN: | 1521-4036 0323-3847 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/bimj.4710320216 |
| Popis: | It is shown that the concept of the basic reproduction number R, which has arisen in the theory of acute air-borne infections, needs essential modifications when it is applied to chronic, sexually transmitted infections. A new definition of R is given, which takes into account the aging of the infected person and its partners during the course of the infection. Thereby the impact of age preference in sexual choice on the spread of HIV/AIDS can be quantified with little computational effort. It turns out that for low-risk groups, R is by far smaller than conventional calculation would suggest, and that the frequency of partnerships between people with distant ages exerts greater influence on R than the infection probability per contact and the number of successive partnerships within the infectious period. It is suggested that a high incidence of partnerships between older men and very young women is a major reason for the AIDS epidemic in Africa. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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