| Popis: |
MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and forecast evaluations are presented. We also address methodology and practical issues relating to building and maintaining a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in Appendix A . “I think it should be generally agreed that a model that does not generate many properties of actual data cannot be claimed to have any ‘policy implications’…” Clive.W. J. Granger (1992, p. 4). |
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