Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation?
Autor: | Jon Eischeid, Andrew Hoell, Judith Perlwitz, Linyin Cheng, Martin P. Hoerling, Taiyi Xu, Klaus Wolter, Randall M. Dole |
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Rok vydání: | 2016 |
Předmět: |
Watershed
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology 02 engineering and technology Spatial distribution 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Water planning Geophysics El Niño Climatology General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science Precipitation Intensity (heat transfer) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Geophysical Research Letters. 43:819-825 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 0094-8276 |
Popis: | The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November–April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizations of El Nino intensity. Weak and moderate El Nino events fail to appreciably alter wet or dry risks across northern and central California, though odds for wet conditions increase across southern California during moderate El Nino. Significant increases in wet probabilities occur during strong El Nino events across the entire state. In California's main northern watershed regions, simulations indicate an 85% chance of greater than normal precipitation and a 50% probability of at least 125% of normal. Our results indicate that both the statewide average and the spatial distribution of California precipitation are sensitive to El Nino intensity. Forecasts of El Nino intensity would thus contribute to improved situational awareness for California water planning and related water resource impacts. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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