Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model

Autor:	Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Bruno Jérôme
Rok vydání:	2012
Předmět:	Sociology and Political Science State (polity) Presidential election Presidential system media_common.quotation_subject Political economy Political science Unemployment Unemployment rate Popularity Subprime mortgage crisis media_common
Zdroj:	PS: Political Science & Politics. 45:663-668
ISSN:	1537-5935 1049-0965
Popis:	Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of 10% in October 2009, the nation's unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in May 2012. Nonetheless, this is still 0.7 percentage point higher than what Ronald Reagan faced in 1984 or what confronted George H.W. Bush in 1992 as they ran for their second terms. Looking at measures of presidential popularity for the month of May since 1980, Barack Obama's approval rating is at 46% in the Gallup polls, which is the third-worst rating after George W. Bush (30% in 2008) and George H.W. Bush (39.4% in 1992). Given Barack Obama's approval rating and the current national unemployment level, must we conclude that Barack Obama is irremediably on the ropes against Mitt Romney in 2012?
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::ba0f848f6929f71bd46b891d0351dd1a https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000972 Zobrazit plný text záznamu