Using Stacked Long Short Term Memory with Principal Component Analysis for Short Term Prediction of Solar Irradiance based on Weather Patterns
| Autor: | Edwin Sybingco, Justin D. de Guia, Elmer P. Dadios, Ronnie Concepcion, Jonnel Alejandrino, Hilario A. Calinao |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Mean squared error
Artificial neural network 020209 energy Photovoltaic system 020206 networking & telecommunications 02 engineering and technology Solar irradiance Residual Convolutional neural network Term (time) Principal component analysis Statistics 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | TENCON |
| DOI: | 10.1109/tencon50793.2020.9293719 |
| Popis: | Energy production of photovoltaic (PV) system is heavily influenced by solar irradiance. Accurate prediction of solar irradiance leads to optimal dispatching of available energy resources and anticipating end-user demand. However, it is difficult to do due to fluctuating nature of weather patterns. In the study, neural network models were defined to predict solar irradiance values based on weather patterns. Models included in the study are artificial neural network, convolutional neural network, bidirectional long-short term memory (LSTM) and stacked LSTM. Preprocessing methods such as data normalization and principal component analysis were applied before model training. Regression metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), maximum residual error (max error), mean absolute error (MAE), explained variance score (EVS), and regression score function (R2 score), were used to evaluate the performance of model prediction. Plots such as prediction curves, learning curves, and histogram of error distribution were also considered as well for further analysis of model performance. All models showed that it is capable of learning unforeseen values, however, stacked LSTM has the best results with the max error, R2, MAE, MSE, and EVS values of 651.536, 0.953, 41.738, 5124.686, and 0.946, respectively. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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