Evaluation of the EU proposed farm income stabilisation tool by skew normal linear mixed models
| Autor: | Bruno Henry de Frahan, Mathieu Pigeon, Michel Denuit |
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| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Economics and Econometrics Actuarial science Skew normal distribution business.industry Farm income Skew Distribution (economics) Generalized linear mixed model Econometrics Economics Revenue Statistics Probability and Uncertainty business Common Agricultural Policy Financial services |
| Zdroj: | European Actuarial Journal. 4:383-409 |
| ISSN: | 2190-9741 2190-9733 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s13385-014-0097-9 |
| Popis: | The European Commission has introduced new risk management tools in the rural development pillar 2 of the Common Agricultural Policy. One of them consists in providing co-financing support to mutual funds compensating farmers who experience a severe drop in their income. This paper analyses this income stabilisation tool for a region in Belgium by means of a skew normal linear mixed model. Relying on the farm accountancy data network, this analysis focuses on estimating the probability that such a fund would need to intervene and, in that case, the expected amount of each farm income compensation. The predictive distribution of future incomes given past revenues trajectory is derived and used for evaluation purposes. Particular attention is paid to additional requirements that could be imposed to the income stabilisation tool. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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