| Popis: |
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with ultimate precision, so that the progressive reduction of the prediction uncertainty in space and time is an evergreen and challenging task, both from the scientific point of view for the intrinsic complexity of the seismic phenomenon and for its high societal relevance. To this aim, algorithms exist (like CN, M8, and M8S) based on objective recognition of seismicity patterns that have been already tested for some decades for intermediate-term middle-range prediction of strong earthquakes above a preassigned magnitude threshold. Here, we review the fundamental ideas of an integrated approach to earthquake prediction, based on the synergy of high-density geodetic observations (GNSS and SAR) and seismological information, and the results obtained so far through a completely new retrospective analysis of the 2016–17 seismic crisis in Central Italy and the 2012 Emilia sequence, where space-time precursory features are highlighted within intermediate-term ground velocities and seismicity. This integrated approach defines a new paradigm for time-dependent hazard assessment scenarios, and it is demonstrated that the proper integration of seismological and geodetic information can achieve what here is called intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction. The extent of the alarmed areas, identified for the strong earthquakes by earthquake prediction algorithms based on seismicity patterns, can be significantly reduced from linear dimensions of a few hundred to a few tens of kilometers, leading to an improved more specific implementation of low-key preventive actions, like those recommended by UNESCO as early as in 1991. |
