Baseline and target values for PV forecasts: Toward improved solar power forecasting
| Autor: | Venkat Banunarayanan, Jie Zhang, Siyuan Lu, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Edwin Campos, Brad Lehman, Hendrik F. Hamann, Joseph H. Simmons |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
Operating reserve Meteorology business.industry Weather forecasting computer.software_genre Solar energy Numerical weather prediction Solar power forecasting Reliability engineering Physics::Space Physics Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Probabilistic forecasting business Baseline (configuration management) computer Solar power |
| Zdroj: | 2015 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. |
| Popis: | Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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