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South-Central US milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) are critical adult nectar and larval food resources for producing the first spring and last summer/fall generations of declining eastern migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus). MaxEnt niche models were developed for North American ranges of four important South-Central US milkweeds: Asclepias asperula ssp. capricornu, A. viridis, A. oenotheroides, and A. latifolia. Twelve models per species utilized subsets of six to eight of 95 edapho-topo-climatic variables chosen by a random subset feature selection algorithm. Milkweed weekly phenology was compared between early and late season periods of monarch activity. Novel land cover preference risk assessments were developed for milkweeds through land cover utilization-availability analyses, incorporating a novel sample bias reduction method for citizen science data before calculation of relativized electivity index (E*) land cover preference. Asclepias a. ssp. capricornu and A. viridis occurred more frequently during early season monarch activity, while A. oenotheroides and A. latifolia occurred more frequently during late season monarch activity. Milkweed utilization of roadsides varied from 6–31%. Developed-Open Space and Grassland Herbaceous land classes generally had highest benefit among milkweeds. Cultivated Crops and Shrub/Scrub had high risk. Combined milkweed high Ei* kernel density estimation surfaces resolved interior and coastal corridors of milkweed land cover preference providing functional connectivity for the monarch spring and fall migrations. A potentially critical gap in milkweed land cover benefit connectivity was identified in South Texas. Milkweed land cover preference risk assessments can be used to prioritize milkweed habitat conservation for enhancing monarch migration connectivity across the South-Central US. |
