Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization

Autor:	Matthew O. Jackson, Roland G. Fryer, Philipp Harms
Rok vydání:	2018
Předmět:	Sequence Computer science Confirmation bias media_common.quotation_subject 0502 economics and business 05 social sciences Polarization (politics) 050207 economics General Economics Econometrics and Finance 050205 econometrics Cognitive psychology media_common Interpretation (model theory)
Zdroj:	Journal of the European Economic Association. 17:1470-1501
ISSN:	1542-4774 1542-4766
DOI:	10.1093/jeea/jvy025
Popis:	We introduce a model in which agents observe signals about the state of the world, and some signals are open to interpretation. Our decision makers first interpret each signal based on their current belief and then form a posterior on the sequence of interpreted signals. This “double updating” leads to confirmation bias and can lead agents who observe the same information to polarize. We explore the model’s predictions in an online experiment in which individuals interpret research summaries about climate change and the death penalty. Consistent with the model, there is a significant relationship between an individual’s prior and their interpretation of the summaries; and over half of the subjects exhibit polarizing behavior.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::b37945591ac0d20d125bb0c7df74e5d1 https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy025 Zobrazit plný text záznamu