An Object-Oriented Approach to Risk and Reliability Analysis: Methodology and Aviation Safety Applications
| Autor: | Felicia Angelica Duran, Vincent J. Dandini, Gregory Dane Wyss |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2004 |
| Předmět: |
Risk analysis
Engineering Probabilistic risk assessment business.industry Event (computing) Event tree analysis Probabilistic logic computer.software_genre Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design Reliability engineering Modeling and Simulation Object model Data mining Discrete event simulation business computer Software Human reliability |
| Zdroj: | SIMULATION. 80:33-43 |
| ISSN: | 1741-3133 0037-5497 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0037549704042033 |
| Popis: | This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo–based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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