Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework
| Autor: | Robert J. Brecha, Nico Bauer, Kejun Jiang, Elmar Kriegler, Hans-Holger Rogner, Jérôme Hilaire, Jae Edmonds, Fabio Sferra |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
Natural resource economics business.industry 020209 energy Mechanical Engineering Fossil fuel Embodied carbon Climate change 02 engineering and technology Building and Construction Pollution Energy engineering Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering General Energy 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Coal Electrical and Electronic Engineering business Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Energy. 111:580-592 |
| ISSN: | 0360-5442 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088 |
| Popis: | This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established dataset of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends the analysis by specifying alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applying these filters (mark-ups and scaling factors) to the original dataset, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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