Exploratory Modeling and Analysis for Transportation: An Approach and Support Tool - TMIP-EMAT
| Autor: | Rachel B. Copperman, Jeffrey Newman, Thomas F Rossi, Martin Milkovits, Jason Lemp, Sarah Sun |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
050210 logistics & transportation
Operations research Land use Computer science Mechanical Engineering Exploratory modeling 05 social sciences 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Workflow Software deployment Policy decision 0502 economics and business Electromagnetic acoustic transducer 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2673:407-418 |
| ISSN: | 2169-4052 0361-1981 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0361198119844463 |
| Popis: | Traditionally, travel forecasting models have been used to provide single point predictions. That is, a single future scenario is developed and the model is applied to that scenario. This approach, however, ignores the deep uncertainty that exists in future land use, demographic, and transportation systems inputs, not to mention the uncertainty that exists in the model itself. More importantly, transportation policy decisions made on the basis of such model outputs may be misguided and ineffective. This paper demonstrates and motivates the use of travel forecasting models in an exploratory manner that accounts for the inherent uncertainties of the future. Specifically, this paper describes the user workflow for a new planning and modeling tool: the Travel Model Improvement Program Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Tool (TMIP-EMAT) that has been developed to facilitate the use of exploratory techniques with travel forecasting models. Examples from the proof of concept deployment using the Greater Buffalo-Niagara Regional Transportation Council regional travel demand model are included. The goal of the longer term study is to provide TMIP-EMAT for state and regional transportation planning agencies to assess how technological innovations will affect traffic and transit demand on major corridors 20 to 30 years down the road. The tool will illuminate interactions between transportation supply and demand on urban surface transportation systems (especially at the corridor level) through exploratory modeling and simulation, and facilitate insights into potential, possible, plausible, probable or preferred futures. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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