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Theoretically, microbiological pathogenic risk assessment in foods requires a significant amount of information about food-borne illnesses, such as personal data of patients, disease identification, infective doses found in contaminated food, consumption level, preparation and storage conditions. Microbiological pathogenic risk assessment is quite costly, but necessary for a government as the country’s risk manager. Governments, especially in developing countries, avoid this limitation by using a “zero tolerance” strategy for all pathogens (no pathogen is allowed), which is not practical or realistic. In addition, it can be a nontariff trade barrier. As an alternative, the bacterial exponential growth equation can be modified and applied for establishing nonzero tolerant standards for certain types of pathogens. An exponential growth equation is modified as X = Y/2n, in which X is the dependent variable for “allowable dose of the pathogen in one serving of a food”; Y is the independent variable for “infective dose of a pathogen”; and n is the independent variable for “number of cycles of generation time for the pathogen” or “number of generation.” This information can be obtained from the scientific literature and food preparation, storage, and eating conditions. This equation has been implemented for establishing five microbiological pathogen standards in 33 notifications of 87 food groups in Thailand. |
