| Autor: |
Vusala Jafarova, Vusal Gasimli |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Science, technologies, innovation. :25-38 |
| ISSN: |
2520-6524 |
| DOI: |
10.35668/2520-6524-2021-2-04 |
| Popis: |
The case of Azerbaijan serves to study the adequacy of exchange-rate policy in a resource-rich economy. This paper analyses the behavior of Azerbaijan’s external accounts over the past twenty years. Declining oil prices made an existing exchange-rate peg unsustainable and led to a large devaluation in 2015. Since then, the current account balance has improved, but by less than expected. We use the EBA-Lite method to derive regression-based estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate, and relate misalignments to measures of “policy gaps”. Our findings suggest that only a few years after the devaluation, Azerbaijan’s currency has once more become overvalued. Moreover, the equilibrium real exchange rate is volatile and hardly compatible with a long-run exchange rate peg. Exchange rate policy should try to accommodate shifts in the fundamental determinants such as relative productivity and real oil prices. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
