Modeling and prediction of effects of land use change in an agroforestry dominated southeastern Rift-Valley escarpment of Ethiopia
| Autor: | Eshetu Yirsaw, Habtamu Temesgen, Abiyot Legesse, Wei Wu |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
geography
education.field_of_study geography.geographical_feature_category Marsh 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Land use Agroforestry Geography Planning and Development Population Land management Wetland Woodland 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Shrubland Land use land-use change and forestry Computers in Earth Sciences education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment. 21:100469 |
| ISSN: | 2352-9385 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100469 |
| Popis: | Through the increased use of innovation, human population has been growing rapidly in its ability to derive resources from the environment. Predicting how land use/cover (LUC) changes affect regions and the society requires a good understanding of the dynamic human-environment interactions associated with land use change. This article addresses the future spatial distribution of land use and the impacts that ongoing LUC change have on the ecosystems of Gedeo-Abaya landscape. The actual LUC maps of 2000 and 2015 reference years together with natural and socioeconomic indicators were used in a combined Markov–CA model with GIS technology to simulate and forecast the changes in 2025 and 2035. Our prediction processes shows among the indicators used, distance to the nearest road and slope have more significant effects on the transition potential maps followed by elevation. Area based prediction change generally shows significant increase in agroforestry, cultivation land, and wetland/marshes LUC classes, while most natural vegetation classes, particularly woodland/shrubland (−29.8%), and grazing land (−5.7%) show significant reduction from 2015 to 2035. The present and forecasted trend of LUC changes has visible environmental and socioeconomic impacts, particularly on woodland ecosystems and on the well-being of (agro)pastoral communities in the downstream. Whilst, the betterment of the upstream study region strongly depends on the continuity with the current government landscape restoration policy as well as on the permanence of farmers current environmental friendly land management practices. Forecasting LUC changes in the study landscape offers the possibility that unwanted changes are prevented through proper and timely interventions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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