Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain
| Autor: | Luis Miguel Barranco, Francisco Olivera, Ángela Potenciano, Javier Álvarez-Rodríguez |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Series (stratigraphy)
Potential impact 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Wilcoxon signed-rank test 0208 environmental biotechnology Climate change Binomial test 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Climatology Precipitation types Environmental science sense organs Precipitation skin and connective tissue diseases Precipitation index 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of River Basin Management. 15:161-173 |
| ISSN: | 1814-2060 1571-5124 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/15715124.2017.1280815 |
| Popis: | The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when comp... |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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