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The all-India trend rate of fertility change, since 1961, was obtained from kriged maps (reconstituted surfaces) of a fertility index drawn from the data of the four decennial censuses conducted between 1961 and 1991, at the district level. This rate is calculated as the relative variation of the fertility index between consecutive censuses. It actually represents the change related to any measurement of fertility such as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Based on the surfaces of change, the onset of the fertility transition was estimated by using an auxiliary variable which takes into account both the random fluctuations in the pre-transition change at the district level and the absorbing state which constitutes the transition. The space-time analysis (Mantel test) of transition through this auxiliary variable shows aggregates of districts in transition at short geographical distances, but no geographical diffusion – neither on a sub-continental scale nor in the three selected regions having high and low fertility. This represents a process of vertical, but non-social, diffusion set in motion by the state machinery called a ``top-down' process (Srinivasan, 1995). This top-down process does not resemble the transition diffusion at its onset in Europe which had a strong geographical component. |
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