Econometric model of Russian Federation: analysis and forecasts for 2018 - 2019
| Autor: | Sergey A. Mitsek |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
050208 finance Annual growth rate 05 social sciences Monetary policy Population Monetary economics Fixed capital Investment (macroeconomics) Fiscal policy Econometric model Control and Systems Engineering 0502 economics and business Economics 050207 economics education Total factor productivity |
| Zdroj: | IFAC-PapersOnLine. 51:395-400 |
| ISSN: | 2405-8963 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.416 |
| Popis: | The paper describes an econometric model of the Russian economy which is tailored to analyze and explain current trends in Russian economy and to forecast its dynamics for the next 2 years. The model showed that if all exogenous variables (export and import prices, the money mass and economically active population, etc.) will have the same dynamics they had during last years the average annual growth rate of Russian economy for the next two years will be about 1 - 2 % annually while inflation will increase to about 8 - 9 % annually. Active monetary policy increases the short-term economic growth only slightly but helps to improve investment in fixed capital. Active fiscal policy has negative impact on economic growth. Such outcome is the result of reduction of total factor productivity of Russian economy and of inadequate investment. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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