Investigating Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product from Tourism: Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Autor: Azay Bikram Sthapit, Shankar Khanal, Basanta Dhakal
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
Zdroj: American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. 5:311
ISSN: 2326-8999
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20160505.20
Popis: This study tries to examine long run and short run relationship of foreign exchange earnings from tourism and average expenditure of international tourists towards share of gross domestic product (GDP) of Nepalese tourism by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). A multivariate time series analysis has been applied from the period of 1991 to 2014 tourism data of Nepal. The results of Johansen test of co-integration indicates there is one co-integrated vector under 4 lags of length among the share of gross domestic product of Nepalese tourism, foreign exchange earnings from tourism and average expenditure of international tourist. The long run relationship based on vector error correction model has indicated that coefficient of GDP elasticity with respect to average expenditure per visitor is more elastic as compare to coefficient of GDP elasticity with respect to foreign exchange earnings from tourism. The results of Granger causality analysis have depicted that there exists bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and expenditure per visitor and unidirectional causal relationship exists between GDP and foreign exchange earnings from tourism.
Databáze: OpenAIRE