Examining the drivers of india’s trade deficit: An ardl bounds and causality approach

Autor:	Surekha Nayak, Rameesha Kalra, K S Manu
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Distributed lag Exchange rate Granger causality Economics Balance of trade Monetary economics Crude oil Causality
Zdroj:	IIMS Journal of Management Science. 11:67
ISSN:	0976-173X 0976-030X
DOI:	10.5958/0976-173x.2020.00006.8
Popis:	India’s trade deficit has widened due to its dependence on imports and uncompetitive exports. An understanding of drivers influencing trade deficit deserves significant attention. This study examined the impact and causality of crude oil, USD/INR exchange rate and gold on trade deficit in India from the year 2004 to 2019. The study employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test approach and the Granger causality to empirically verify the results. The study found that USD/INR and crude oil prices have a negative and long run impact on trade deficit. The study also observed no impact of gold on trade deficit. Further, the Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality running from crude oil and USD/INR to trade deficit. The implication of the result is that Government of India and policymakers should aim at promoting a phenomenal growth of exports and reduce imports of crude oil and gold so as to maintain a sustainable trade balance.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::a52b2574cd7bd93a043c7490d8db4351 https://doi.org/10.5958/0976-173x.2020.00006.8 Zobrazit plný text záznamu