Partisan Preferences, Electoral Prospects, and Economic Expectations
| Autor: | Christopher Wlezien, Matthew Ladner |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: |
Government
Sociology and Political Science Public economics media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences 0506 political science Politics Perception Voting Political economy 0502 economics and business 050602 political science & public administration Economics Endogeneity 050207 economics media_common |
| Zdroj: | Comparative Political Studies. 40:571-596 |
| ISSN: | 1552-3829 0010-4140 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0010414005285758 |
| Popis: | Research shows that economic expectations reflect partisan preferences. Those who support the current government tend to think the future will go well, at least by comparison with those who oppose the government. But, there always is uncertainty surrounding the political future, especially in the period before elections. This article considers whether the uncertainty matters. Specifically, it examines whether people's economic expectations are conditional on their own estimates of who will win. The analysis relies on data from five election study panels in the United States and the United Kingdom, both majoritarian systems, where the effects of partisan winning and losing are most likely. The results imply that people in these countries do anticipate election outcomes; that is, economic expectations prior to elections reflect both the political present and future. This tells us not only that expectations in these systems are substantially rational but that politics plays a much bigger role in our economic thinking than originally thought. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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