Statistical forecasting of daily pressures
| Autor: | M. Menziani, Sergio Pugnaghi, G. Saltini, Marzio Marseguerra, G. Aprilesi |
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| Rok vydání: | 1979 |
| Předmět: |
Zero mean
Gaussian Computational Mechanics Astronomy and Astrophysics Function (mathematics) Noise (electronics) Standard deviation Stochastic function symbols.namesake Geophysics Geochemistry and Petrology Mechanics of Materials Fourier analysis Statistics symbols Deterministic function Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics. 13:347-353 |
| ISSN: | 1029-0419 0309-1929 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/03091927908243781 |
| Popis: | Daily pressures P(t) measured in Modena, Italy, from 1869 to 1976 have been studied statistically. As a function of time, t, the pressure can be expressed in an additive way, more precisely as P(t)=EP (t)+ RP (t), where EP (t) is a deterministic function having a fundamental period of one year, and RP(t) is a stochastic function. From a Fourier analysis EP (t) has been found to be well represented by its first three harmonics. RP (t) is small (about 5 mm Hg), and statistically stationary, with zero mean and a standard deviation of 5.5 mm Hg. It can be expressed as an autoregressive-moving average process of order 2 − 2. The corresponding noise is approximately Gaussian with a standard deviation of 3.3 mm Hg and is “white” as expected. It is therefore possible to improve the statistical prediction of the daily pressure. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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