Oil shocks: How can OECD countries manage them best?
| Autor: | Henri Delessy, Hélène Harasty |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 1992 |
| Předmět: |
Inflation
Economic policy Strategy and Management media_common.quotation_subject Oecd countries Monetary economics Management Science and Operations Research Recession Computer Science Applications Supply and demand Shock (economics) Modeling and Simulation Energy intensity Unemployment Economics Production (economics) Statistics Probability and Uncertainty media_common |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Forecasting. 11:491-506 |
| ISSN: | 1099-131X 0277-6693 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/for.3980110509 |
| Popis: | As the 1990-91 Gulf crisis has emphasized, the risk of new oil shocks remains high in the medium to long run. Although energy intensity has decreased in the major countries since the first two oil shocks, the simulation performed with the MIMOSA world model, which is described in this paper, shows that a permanent rise in oil prices still induces direct strong negative consequences in the OECD: a temporary recession, a durable loss in production and employment and a lasting rise in inflation. Moreover, according to the model and due to national dissimilarities, an oil shock in Europe has some asymmetrical effects which are pointed out here. Further simulations test two different economic policy responses in the OECD: a ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policy in which each country tries to ‘export’ its unemployment by curbing domestic inflation and wage growth; and a co-ordinated policy supporting both supply and demand. The first leads to a general deflationist overshooting. The second ensures stabilization with a much lower cost in employment. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|