Formulation and Solution of an Inverse Reliability Problem to Simulate the Dynamic Behavior of COVID-19 Pandemic
| Autor: | A.J. Silva Neto, G. B. Libotte, Fran Sérgio Lobato, Gustavo Mendes Platt |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0209 industrial biotechnology
Mathematical optimization Mathematical model Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Computer science Inverse Value (computer science) 02 engineering and technology Inverse problem Loop (topology) 020901 industrial engineering & automation 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Basic reproduction number Reliability (statistics) |
| Zdroj: | Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics. 22:91-107 |
| ISSN: | 2676-0029 |
| DOI: | 10.5540/tcam.2021.022.01.00091 |
| Popis: | Different types of mathematical models have been used to predict the dynamic behavior of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Many of them involve the formulation and solution of inverse problems. This kind of problem is generally carried out by considering the model, the vector of design variables, and system parameters as deterministic values. In this contribution, a methodology based on a double loop iteration process and devoted to evaluate the influence of uncertainties on inverse problem is evaluated. The inner optimization loop is used to find the solution associated with the highest probability value, and the outer loop is the regular optimization loop used to determine the vector of design variables. For this task, we use an inverse reliability approach and Differential Evolution algorithm. For illustration purposes, the proposed methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of SIRD (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovery-Dead) model associated with dynamic behavior of COVID-19 pandemic considering real data from China's epidemic and uncertainties in the basic reproduction number (R0). The obtained results demonstrate, as expected, that the increase of reliability implies the increase of the objective function value. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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