Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

Autor:	Kenneth F. Wallis, Gianna Boero, Jeremy Smith
Rok vydání:	2008
Předmět:	Macroeconomics Inflation Economics and Econometrics Inflation targeting media_common.quotation_subject Monetary policy Economics Survey data collection Discount points Independence media_common
Zdroj:	The Economic Journal. 118:1107-1127
ISSN:	1468-0297 0013-0133
DOI:	10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x
Popis:	This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::a1212cd72dc2b4bf9a774d5bb76c3136 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF