Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

Autor:	Nuno Limão, Kyle Handley, Alejandro Graziano
Rok vydání:	2018
Předmět:	Trade war Commercial policy Brexit 0502 economics and business 05 social sciences Economics Tariff media_common.cataloged_instance International economics 050207 economics European union 050205 econometrics media_common
DOI:	10.3386/w25334
Popis:	We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::9ff84230ce813633a5d30a0e409dd3f8 https://doi.org/10.3386/w25334 Zobrazit plný text záznamu