Spatial prediction of the intensity of latent effects governing hydrogeological phenomena

Autor: Wolfgang Urfer, József Kovács, László Márkus, Olaf Berke
Rok vydání: 1999
Předmět:
Zdroj: Environmetrics. 10:633-654
ISSN: 1099-095X
1180-4009
Popis: Fluctuation of the groundwater level in karstic areas results from different cumulative effects, such as water infiltration from precipitation, human interference on the water resources of a certain area, the Moon's tide effect, air pressure fluctuation, etc. It is practically impossible to measure these effects directly, generating the need for estimations by indirect methods, applied to the registered water level in monitoring wells. The conventional tool to determine latent or background effects governing variability or fluctuations is factor analysis. Since ordinary factor analysis has been elaborated for independent observations and the observed karstwater levels at a certain location represent realizations of time series, dynamic factor analysis has to be used instead. The obtained dynamic factors can then be identified as the above mentioned effects. Once the intensity of an effect has been determined at every observation site, its spatial structure and prediction is aimed to be given. To achieve this goal, universal kriging is used and analyzed for the spatial process of estimated loadings of dynamic factors. The present paper concentrates on the effect of infiltration. The obtained map of the loadings of the dynamic factor corresponding to infiltration provides valuable information on the intensity of this effect. Its importance from the environmental protection point of view is immense, because it helps to determine those potentially dangerous areas where infiltrating contaminated water can quickly, and in vast quantity, reach underground water resources. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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