Global meteorological drought and severe drought affected population in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds
| Autor: | Hideo Shiogama, Yuqing Zhang, Hong Wang, Wee Ho Lim, Fubao Sun, Wenbin Liu, Jie Zhang |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Coupled model intercomparison project
education.field_of_study 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Agroforestry Amazon rainforest fungi Population Global warming food and beverages 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Climate change mitigation Geography Climatology parasitic diseases Climate model East Asia Rural area education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Popis: | In Paris Agreement of 2015, a more ambitious climate change mitigation target, on limiting the global warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, has been proposed. Scientific investigations are necessary to investigate environmental risks associated with these warming targets. This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global meteorological drought and the impact of severe drought on population at 1.5 °C and 2 °C additional warming conditions using the CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models. Our results highlight the risk of meteorological drought at the globe and in several hotspot regions such as Amazon, Northeastern Brazil, South Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period. Correspondingly, more people would be exposed to severe droughts in many regions (i.e., total and urban population in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Europe and rural population in Central Asia, South Africa and South Asia). By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of meteorological drought would decrease (i.e., less drought duration, drought intensity and drought severity but relatively more frequent severe drought) and the affected total and urban population would decrease (the exposed rural population would increase in most regions) at global and sub-continental scales. Whilst challenging for the rural areas, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C are significant for reducing the risks and societal impacts of global meteorological drought. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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