Estudio probabilístico de métodos avanzados de análisis de curva de declinación para la estimación de reservas de petróleo durante el régimen de flujo transitorio

Autor: M Daniel Alarcón, Víctor Sabrera, Christopher Villafuerte, Alexei Huerta
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Revista Fuentes el Reventón Energético. 18:61-74
ISSN: 2145-8502
1657-6527
DOI: 10.18273/revfue.v18n1-2020007
Popis: espanolLos reservorios del Noroeste Peruano han producido por mas de un siglo principalmente areniscas silicoclasticas, de baja permeabilidad, a traves de yacimientos en compartimentos o sub-bloques generados por un alto fallamiento. El mecanismo caracteristico de impulsion es depletacion por gas en solucion y los pozos comunmente son producidos con un sistema de levantamiento artificial por bombeo mecanico o gas lift; el factor de recobro promedio alcanzado en estos yacimientos esta entre 8% y 15%. Durante el proceso de evaluacion, se utilizo la informacion de 30 pozos productores de diferentes reservorios apretados de la Cuenca Talara: Manta, Mesa, Mogollon y Parinas Inferior. Se probaron los citados metodos de analisis de declinacion con la historia de produccion de los primeros 6, 12 y 24 meses; cabe senalar que, de acuerdo a la observacion realizada y debido a la baja productividad de estos reservorios, se determino que su flujo aun se encontraba en estado transitorio durante el periodo de analisis. Los pronosticos se compararon con datos reales de produccion y los modelos de declinacion se clasificaron por orden de prioridad de acuerdo a la certeza de su grado de ajuste. Se eligio la tecnica mas idonea para generar, a traves de un enfoque probabilistico, utilizando la simulacion Monte Carlo, un conjunto de curvas tipo para la cuenca Talara; de esta manera, se obtuvieron los percentiles P90, P50 y P10. Los rangos de permeabilidad en los reservorios de los casos evaluados varian entre 0.01 y 1 mD. Se ha observado que la aplicacion del modelo DCA de ARPs en pozos con poca historia de produccion de reservorios de baja permeabilidad, resulta impreciso en las predicciones de estimados de reservas. Por otro lado, los nuevos metodos de DCA son mas conservadores en sus pronosticos y, por ende, mas precisos en este caso debido a que permiten incorporar informacion en estado transitorio. La aplicacion de este nuevo enfoque ayudara a obtener pronosticos confiables en la evaluacion de futuras estrategias de desarrollo y a predecir con mayor certeza la produccion de futuros trabajos de workover y nuevos pozos de desarrollo. EnglishThe reservoirs of the Peruvian Northwest have produced, for more than a century, mainly low permeability silicoclastic sandstones through deposits in compartments or sub-blocks generated by high faulting. The characteristic depletion drive mechanism is solution gas and the wells are commonly built with an artificial lift system by mechanical pumping or gas lift; the average recovery factor reached in these deposits is between 8% and 15%. In recent years, a great advance has been observed in reserve estimation techniques through the analysis of decline curves (DCA) in unconventional deposits with very low permeability. These techniques can also be used in tight conventional reservoirs, those typically found in the Talara Basin in Peru, in which the application of the traditional DCA technique often overestimates production forecasts and reserve calculations. Alternatively, it has been proposed to evaluate the Stretched Exponential Decline Model (SEDM), Power Law, Duong and Extended Exponential Decline, in the reservoirs of this basin. During the evaluation process, information from 30 producing wells from different tight reservoirs in the Talara Basin was used: Manta, Mesa, Mogollon and Parinas Inferior. The aforementioned decline analysis methods were tested with the production history of the first 6, 12 and 24 months; It should be mentioned that, according to the observation made and due to the low productivity of these reservoirs, it was determined that their flow was still in a transitory state during the analysis period. The forecasts were compared with actual production data and the decline models were ranked in order of priority according to the certainty of their degree of adjustment. The most suitable technique was chosen to generate, through a probabilistic approach and using Monte Carlo simulation, a set of type curves for the Talara basin; thus, the P90, P50 and P10 percentiles were obtained. The permeability ranges in the reservoirs in the evaluated cases fluctuate between 0.01 and 1 mD. It has been observed that the application of ARPs’ traditional DCA model in wells with little production history of low permeability reservoirs, proves to be inefficient in the reserve calculation forecasts. furthermore, the new DCA methods are more conservative in their forecasts and, therefore, more accurate in this case because they allow the incorporation of transient information. The application of this new approach will help to obtain reliable forecasts in the evaluation of future development strategies and to predict with greater certainty the production of future workover jobs and new development wells.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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