| Popis: |
This chapter deals with the calculation of conditional probabilities, in particular the problem of calculating the probability of future events given past events. The students study a text by Nicolas de Caritat, Marquis de Condorcet, and learn some biographical information. The intention is to have the students work autonomously through Condorcet’s problem and his explanation. They are also given a similar text by Lacroix which suggests a different approach to the same problem. The problem and its resolution lead naturally to the formulation of Bayes’ Theorem. The use of these original texts may serve as an introduction or as an activity at the end of a course. |
