North American Forest Futures 2018–2090: Scenarios for Building a More Resilient Forest Sector
| Autor: | Richard Birdsey, David N. Bengston, Daniel R. Williams, Robert L. Olson, Jonathan C. Peck, Francisco José Zamudio, Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes, Melissa Barros |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
040101 forestry
Range (biology) business.industry media_common.quotation_subject Forest management Environmental resource management 0211 other engineering and technologies 021107 urban & regional planning 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences 02 engineering and technology Geography 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Psychological resilience business Socioeconomic status Futures contract media_common |
| Zdroj: | World Futures Review. 10:152-169 |
| ISSN: | 2169-2793 1946-7567 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/1946756718757751 |
| Popis: | North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios will be used in discussions and futures exercises with forestry leaders to develop foresight and assure that plans are responsive to the challenges and opportunities ahead. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|