Grass to grain: Probabilistic modeling of agricultural conversion in the North American Great Plains
| Autor: | Barry G. Robinson, Sarah K. Olimb |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
geography geography.geographical_feature_category Ecology Land use business.industry Agroforestry General Decision Sciences Introduced species 010501 environmental sciences 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Grassland Ecosystem services Ecoregion Agriculture Agricultural land Environmental science business Surface runoff Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Ecological Indicators. 102:237-245 |
| ISSN: | 1470-160X |
| Popis: | Conversion of temperate grasslands in the North American Great Plains has long been identified as a threat to native species and systems. Avoiding conversion, particularly to agricultural cover, has been modeled to show benefits for preserving species diversity and connectivity and maintaining ecosystem services provided by grasslands such as avoiding nutrient and sediment runoff. To identify areas of likely conversion, we employed a probabilistic ecoregion-wide model using soil, topography, and climate variables to simulate future conversion. Our results indicated that roughly 60% of the ecoregion is at moderate or higher risk of conversion or has previously been converted. These data can be used to direct grassland conservation efforts and as a metric to assess suitability of future crop expansion. Also, with added information on government subsidies, clean energy mandates, conservation incentives, and other economic data, our model can be used to assess the benefits and disadvantages of such programs and policies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect