Economic evaluation of the solar carbothermic reduction of ZnO by using a single sensitivity analysis and a Monte-Carlo risk analysis
| Autor: | Stefan Kräupl, Christian Wieckert |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: |
business.industry
Mechanical Engineering Monte Carlo method chemistry.chemical_element Building and Construction Zinc Solar energy Pollution Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering General Energy Pilot plant chemistry Risk analysis (engineering) Risk analysis (business) Production (economics) Probability distribution Electrical and Electronic Engineering business Solar power Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Energy. 32:1134-1147 |
| ISSN: | 0360-5442 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.energy.2006.07.019 |
| Popis: | The technical feasibility of the solar carbothermal reduction of ZnO has been successfully demonstrated in a pilot plant. The economics of this process is addressed by means of a single sensitivity analysis and a Monte-Carlo risk analysis. A medium-term and a long-term scenario have been investigated, each for a 5 and a 30 MWth plant. For a discount rate of 15% the zinc production costs vary between 482 and 245 $/t for the medium-term scenario and between 312 and 146 $/t for the long-term scenario, respectively. These costs do not account for the zinc oxide input material. In addition, a risk analysis was conducted for the 30 MWth long-term scenario. For each input parameter, a probability distribution was estimated and the probability distribution of the zinc production cost was calculated by means of a Monte-Carlo method. The expected mean zinc production costs vary from 95 $/t for a discount rate of 0%–286 $/t for a discount rate of 40%. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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