A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications
| Autor: | Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba Hoseyni, Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad, Kamran Sepanloo |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Risk analysis
Nuclear and High Energy Physics Engineering Probabilistic risk assessment business.industry Management science 020209 energy Mechanical Engineering 02 engineering and technology Variance (accounting) 01 natural sciences 010305 fluids & plasmas Reliability engineering Identification (information) Nuclear Energy and Engineering Ranking 0103 physical sciences 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering General Materials Science Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity (control systems) Safety Risk Reliability and Quality business Waste Management and Disposal Uncertainty analysis |
| Zdroj: | Nuclear Engineering and Design. 305:400-410 |
| ISSN: | 0029-5493 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2016.05.032 |
| Popis: | In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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