A knowledge-based expert system to assess power plant project cost overrun risks
| Autor: | Madhav Prasad Nepal, Golam Kabir, Muhammad Saiful Islam, Martin Skitmore |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0209 industrial biotechnology
business.industry Computer science Project commissioning General Engineering Probabilistic logic Bayesian network 02 engineering and technology computer.software_genre Fuzzy logic Expert system Computer Science Applications Cost overrun 020901 industrial engineering & automation Risk analysis (engineering) Artificial Intelligence 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Canonical model 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Decision-making Project management Unavailability Risk assessment business computer |
| Zdroj: | Expert Systems with Applications. 136:12-32 |
| ISSN: | 0957-4174 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.eswa.2019.06.030 |
| Popis: | Preventing cost overruns of such infrastructure projects as power plants is a global project management problem. The existing risk assessment methods/models have limitations to address the complicated nature of these projects, incorporate the probabilistic causal relationships of the risks and probabilistic data for risk assessment, by taking into account the domain experts’ judgments, subjectivity, and uncertainty involved in their judgments in the decision making process. A knowledge-based expert system is presented to address this issue, using a fuzzy canonical model (FCM) that integrates the fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) and the Canonical model (i.e. a modified Bayesian belief network model). The FCM overcomes: (a) the subjectivity and uncertainty involved in domain experts’ judgment, (b) significantly reduces the time and effort needed for the domain experts in eliciting conditional probabilities of the risks involved in complex risk networks, and (c) reduces the model development tasks, which also reduces the computational load on the model. This approach advances the applications of fuzzy-Bayesian models for cost overrun risks assessment in a complex and uncertain project environment by addressing the major constraints associated with such models. A case study demonstrates and tests the application of the model for cost overrun risk assessment in the construction and commissioning phase of a power plant project, confirming its ability to pinpoint the most critical risks involved in this case, the complexity of the lifting and rigging heavy equipment, inadequate work inspection and testing plan, inadequate site/soil investigation, unavailability of the resources in the local market, and the contractor's poor planning and scheduling. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect