Stochastic simulation for the precipitation frequency over some Brazilian cities through the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
| Autor: | Ana Carla dos Santos Gomes, Paulo Sérgio Lucio, Marconio Silva dos Santos |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Probability of precipitation R software 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Metropolis–Hastings algorithm Stochastic simulation Statistics Econometrics Precipitation Beta distribution Predictive modelling 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Mathematics Precipitation frequency |
| Zdroj: | Meteorological Applications. 23:420-424 |
| ISSN: | 1350-4827 |
| Popis: | This work analyses precipitation patterns in Brazilian cities with different climatic classifications, according to Koppen–Geiger, in order to estimate the probability of precipitation on any day of a particular month. It is focused on the frequency of precipitation and its probability. For this aim, the R software was used to perform stochastic simulations by the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, assuming that the days of a particular month are distributed identically regarding the frequency of rainfall. It is also assumed that this frequency can be modelled by the Beta distribution, with adjusted parameters. The distribution proposed in this work is suitable for adequately estimating the frequency of precipitation when the average chosen rates are higher than 50%. However, this frequency could not be approximated by the proposed method, because the average chosen rates were |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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