| Popis: |
Seismic deficiency of Success Dam, California has been determined and the need of remediation for improving the performance of the dam under earthquake loading has been identified. Consequently, the dam is currently operated under reservoir pool elevation restriction, pending rehabilitation implementation. Justification of operation restrictions and establishing the priority of remediation activities required preparation of a baseline risk assessment. This paper describes the estimation of the inputs to the estimation of the probability of failure (breach of the dam) from earthquake loading using an event tree risk model. The inputs that are described include earthquake loading, liquefaction and deformation analysis and the development of the system response probability relationships for above core erosion, seepage erosion through cracks and tower induced failure modes. Two companion papers describe the potential failure modes related to flood events (Anderson et al 2011)and the overall risk assessment and justification of operation restrictions (Bowles et al 2011). |
