Managing uncertainty: Principles for improved decision making
| Autor: | S. Restrepo, M. White, R. Wilkinson, N. Regan, T. R. Masters, M. J. Strudwick, P. H. Kaye, G. Aggarwal, C. E. L. Bird, A. D. Smith, T. A. G. Marcuson, T. Durkin, J. R. Toller, S. White |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Economics and Econometrics 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Computer science Management science media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences Face (sociological concept) Effective management Decision maker 01 natural sciences Constructive Adaptability 0506 political science 050602 political science & public administration Psychological resilience Statistics Probability and Uncertainty 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common |
| Zdroj: | British Actuarial Journal. 25 |
| ISSN: | 2044-0456 1357-3217 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/s135732172000015x |
| Popis: | Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty. Face up to uncertainty Deconstruct the problem Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases) Models can be helpful, but also dangerous Think about adaptability and resilience Bring people with you These were arrived at following extensive discussions and literature reviews over a 5-year period. While this is an important topic for actuaries, the intended audience is any decision maker or advisor in any sector (public or private). |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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