Predictive modelling and risk assessment of BSE: a review
Autor: | Shane Ward, D. John Fry, Kevin McDonnell, Enda Cummins, Patrick M. Grace |
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Rok vydání: | 2001 |
Předmět: |
business.industry
animal diseases Strategy and Management Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Risk of infection General Engineering General Social Sciences Culling Disease medicine.disease Confidence interval law.invention Transmission (mechanics) law Environmental health medicine Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Risk assessment business Predictive modelling |
Zdroj: | Journal of Risk Research. 4:251-274 |
ISSN: | 1466-4461 1366-9877 |
DOI: | 10.1080/13669870152023809 |
Popis: | Predictive models have been used to monitor and analyse the future course of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and provide estimates of biological parameters to assess the risks to both animal and human health. Risk assessment models have illustrated that oral transmission is the primary cause of BSE (90% of cases) and have shown that horizontal transmission of infection may be responsible for the persistence and clustering of the disease. Best-fit risk assessment models have shown that maternal transmission occurs at a rate of 9.6% with 95% confidence limits of 5.1–14.2. There is an age-dependent susceptibility to infection. Risk models have estimated that bovine susceptibility to BSE, and hence risk of infection, peaks at 1.31 years of age and rapidly decreases in subsequent years. An animal's infectiousness (and hence risk to cause disease) is mainly confined to the end of the incubation period with a peak when clinical signs appear. BSE models have shown that the optimal culling policy to minimiz... |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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