| Popis: |
Land is a sustainable renewable resource important for its huge influence on environment, society and economy. In this paper, a new framework was put forward to building urban land use spatial early warning system. In the proposed approach, system dynamic model (SD), cellular automata model (CA), temporal remote sensing data and geographical spatial analysis were integrated for Shenzhen land use spatial prediction and warning. SD model was applied for linking the socio-economic index, policies factors and land use area into a loop network at regional levels. Meanwhile, CA model was used to compute transitional probabilities of each cell in order to simulate land use changes. Based on land use control indices, spatial distribution of land use alert status was obtained. The results showed that the system had the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system, and met the needs of land use early warning systems and annual planning of land supplies of Shenzhen municipality. |
