Modeling and forecasting of milk production in the SAARC countries and China
| Autor: | Soumitra Das, Mostafa Abotaleb, Kadir Karakaya, W. P. M. C. N. Weerasinghe, Adelajda Matuka, Pradeep Mishra |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
South asia Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity 0402 animal and dairy science Linear model 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Milk production 040201 dairy & animal science 03 medical and health sciences 030104 developmental biology Economics Econometrics Autoregressive integrated moving average Computers in Earth Sciences Statistics Probability and Uncertainty General Agricultural and Biological Sciences China General Environmental Science |
| Zdroj: | Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 8:947-959 |
| ISSN: | 2363-6211 2363-6203 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s40808-021-01138-z |
| Popis: | This study uses yearly data from 1961 to 2018 to forecast milk production in South Asian countries (including China) using ARIMA/GARCH models and Holt’s Linear approach. It is revealed that not all the methods are equally effective in forecasting. Comparison of mean absolute percentage errors between ARIMA and Holt’s Linear model shows that Holt’s approach reveals higher errors.ARIMA forecasting results show that India will be the country with the highest milk production, followed by Pakistan and China while GARCH model fits better to Bangladesh. This paper has policy implications as it can be used for the proper planning of dairy products in the South-Asian counties to safeguard nutritional security. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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