Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana
Autor: | Noémie Lefrancq, Alessio Andronico, Alice Sanna, Mathieu Nacher, Cyril Rousseau, Henrik Salje, Cécile Tran Kiem, Félix Djossou, Simon Cauchemez, Claude Flamand, Tiphanie Succo, Paolo Bosetti, Juliette Paireau |
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Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
0303 health sciences
education.field_of_study business.industry Population Psychological intervention Context (language use) 3. Good health law.invention Metropolitan France 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Geography Transmission (mechanics) law Environmental health Health care 030212 general & internal medicine Economic impact analysis business education Basic reproduction number 030304 developmental biology |
Popis: | While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions reduced the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid saturation of hospitals. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics across the territory, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modeling can be used to support healthcare planning and decision making in a context of high uncertainty. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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