Prediction of rockburst probability given seismic energy and factors defined by the expert method of hazard evaluation (MRG)

Autor: J. Kornowski, Joanna Kurzeja
Rok vydání: 2012
Předmět:
Zdroj: Acta Geophysica. 60:472-486
ISSN: 1895-7455
1895-6572
Popis: In this paper we suggest that conditional estimator/predictor of rockburst probability (and rockburst hazard, PT(t)) can be approximated with the formula PT(t) = P1(θ1)…PN(θN)·PdynT(t), where PdynT(t) is a time-dependent probability of rockburst given only the predicted seismic energy parameters, while Pi(θi) are amplifying coefficients due to local geologic and mining conditions, as defined by the Expert Method of (rockburst) Hazard Evaluation (MRG) known in the Polish mining industry. All the elements of the formula are (approximately) calculable (on-line) and the resulting PT value satisfies inequalities 0 ≤ PT(t) ≤ 1. As a result, the hazard space (0–1) can be always divided into smaller subspaces (e.g., 0–10−5, 10−5–10−4, 10−4–10−3, 10−3–1), possibly named with symbols (e.g., A, B, C, D, …) called “hazard states” — which saves the prediction users from worrying of probabilities. The estimator PT can be interpreted as a formal statement of (reformulated) Comprehensive Method of Rockburst State of Hazard Evaluation, well known in Polish mining industry. The estimator PT is natural, logically consistent and physically interpretable. Due to full formalization, it can be easily generalized, incorporating relevant information from other sources/methods.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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