| Popis: |
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, given their unique geography and natural-resource dependent economies. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change over the coming decades in the Pacific island-economies to identify measures for minimizing or mitigating these impacts. Drawing on the downscaling results of Global Climate Models (GCMs), the paper summarizes climate change effects such as changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and sea levels. Assessment of GCMs suggests that sea level increases are likely to be substantially higher than previously accepted estimates, posing risks of inundation and salinization of freshwater in the Pacific island countries. Crop growth models suggest the potential for substantial losses of agricultural yields, while fisheries models predict changes to catches, and other modeling efforts identify substantial consequences for health and tourism. Integrated Assessment Models indicate the substantial total economic losses, if the business-as-usual growth strategy is followed. Appropriate adaptation strategies must be implemented, in order to ensure that poverty eradication and sustainable development are not impeded. |
