Testing earthquake forecasts using reliability diagrams

Autor:	W. J. Gaggioli, James R. Holliday, L. E. Knox
Rok vydání:	2011
Předmět:	Geophysics Meteorology Earthquake simulation Geochemistry and Petrology Computer science Earthquake forecast Rare events Statistical seismology Earthquake forecasting Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Statistic Reliability (statistics)
Zdroj:	Geophysical Journal International. 188:336-342
ISSN:	0956-540X
DOI:	10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05274.x
Popis:	SUMMARY Reliability diagrams are a standard forecast evaluation tool for comparing forecasted probabilities of binary events with their observed frequencies. To make this comparison for rare events, forecasts of similar probability are grouped together. Here, we demonstrate the utility of reliability diagrams for earthquake forecast evaluation with an application to a modified version of the Holliday et al. time-dependent earthquake forecasting method. We quantify reliability with a χ2 statistic and find that the forecasting method is consistent with reliability; that is, forecast probabilities match rates of occurrence to within the expected uncertainties.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::7f1aa63cd99587a4991774e566b71969 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05274.x Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text